Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gillingham vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Gillingham
Gillingham
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lincoln
Lincoln
M. Mandron 24'
11/16/2019League OneLeague One · Round 18Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Gillingham33%
×Draw26%
Lincoln41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gillingham
1.21
Lincoln
1.37

Lincoln creates 13% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 156 away

creates per match

Gillingham
1.19
Lincoln
1.26

allows per match

Gillingham
1.48
Lincoln
1.22

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw
59%
Gillingham or Lincoln
74%
Draw or Lincoln
67%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+
14%
Lincoln wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals
70%
Gillingham 2+ goals
34%
Gillingham 3+ goals
12%
Lincoln 1+ goals
75%
Lincoln 2+ goals
40%
Lincoln 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)
45%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.19 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Gillingham defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gillingham scores more
33%
level
26%
Lincoln scores more
41%

Lincoln at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. MandronGillinghamGillingham · F
7.6

Match Events

24'
M. Mandron
34'
Neal Eardley
46'
J. Akinde← J. Hesketh
46'
C. Bolger← C. Connolly
64'
Cian Bolger
69'
H. Anderson← J. Payne
70'
Mark Byrne
75'
Max Ehmer
90+4'
A. Jakubiak← B. Hanlan
90'
R. Charles-Cook← O. Lee

Possession

52%Gillingham

Shots

14Gillingham

Pass accuracy

54%Gillingham

Statistics

GillinghamLincoln
Overview
52%Possession48%
14Total Shots5
4Corners3
16Fouls17
Shots
14Total Shots5
2On Target1
9Off Target1
3Blocked3
8Inside Box4
6Outside Box1
Passing
52%Possession48%
332Total Passes301
211Accurate Passes164
64%Pass Accuracy54%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
16Fouls17
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Gillingham vs Lincoln

Gillingham beat Lincoln 1-0 in League One on November 16, 2019.

Goals: M. Mandron (24').

Gillingham controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 5.

The match was played at Priestfield Stadium in Gillingham, Kent.