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Gillingham vs Coventry — League One 2018

Gillingham
Gillingham
CANC
14:00
Coventry
Coventry
4/10/2020League OneLeague One · Round 42Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Gillingham35%
×Draw26%
Coventry39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gillingham
1.30
Coventry
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 44 away

creates per match

Gillingham
1.19
Coventry
1.32

allows per match

Gillingham
1.48
Coventry
1.41

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par
Coventry+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw
61%
Gillingham or Coventry
74%
Draw or Coventry
65%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+
15%
Coventry wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals
73%
Gillingham 2+ goals
37%
Gillingham 3+ goals
14%
Coventry 1+ goals
75%
Coventry 2+ goals
41%
Coventry 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)
47%
Coventry (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.19 + Coventry defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

Coventry attack 1.32 + Gillingham defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gillingham scores more
35%
level
26%
Coventry scores more
39%

Coventry at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gillingham face Coventry (League One)

League One returns with Gillingham hosting Coventry. Match starts April 10, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Gillingham host Coventry at Priestfield Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.