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Coventry vs Gillingham — League One 2018

Coventry
Coventry
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gillingham
Gillingham
D. Hyam 26'
8/24/2019League OneLeague One · Round 5St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Coventry42%
×Draw28%
Gillingham30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coventry
1.25
Gillingham
1.00

Coventry creates 25% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 99 away

creates per match

Coventry
1.12
Gillingham
1.17

allows per match

Coventry
0.83
Gillingham
1.38

finishing

Coventry+0.00on par
Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Coventry or draw
70%
Coventry or Gillingham
72%
Draw or Gillingham
58%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+
19%
Gillingham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals
71%
Coventry 2+ goals
36%
Coventry 3+ goals
13%
Gillingham 1+ goals
63%
Gillingham 2+ goals
26%
Gillingham 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)
59%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.83 · 42 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.12 + Gillingham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Gillingham attack 1.17 + Coventry defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Coventry scores more
42%
level
28%
Gillingham scores more
30%

Coventry at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
D. HyamCoventryCoventry · D
7.8

Match Events

26'
D. Hyam↳ Z. Westbrooke
28'
Barry Fuller
31'
M. Ndjoli← R. Charles-Cook
35'
Mark Byrne
63'
E. List← S. OKeefe
67'
C. O'Hare← Z. Westbrooke
80'
A. Bakayoko← M. Godden
80'
C. Wakefield← W. Jobello
86'
M. Mandron← B. Hanlan

Possession

58%Coventry

Shots

12Coventry

Pass accuracy

56%Coventry

Statistics

CoventryGillingham
Overview
58%Possession42%
12Total Shots9
5Corners5
12Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots9
5On Target3
2Off Target3
5Blocked3
10Inside Box6
2Outside Box3
Passing
58%Possession42%
418Total Passes289
316Accurate Passes174
76%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls14
0Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

League One: Coventry 1–0 Gillingham

Coventry beat Gillingham 1-0 in League One on August 24, 2019.

Goals: D. Hyam (26').

Coventry controlled possession (58%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium in Birmingham.