Gillingham 1–0 Carlisle: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Carlisle

S. Williams 90+4'

3/25/2023

League Two · Round 38MEMS Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Gillingham40%

×Draw28%

Carlisle32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchCarlisle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.08

Gillingham

1.24

Carlisle

1.08

Gillingham creates 15% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 115 away

1.12

creates per match

1.07

1.09

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Gillingham

1.12

Carlisle

1.07

allows per match

Gillingham

1.09

Carlisle

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Carlisle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

68%

Gillingham or Carlisle

72%

Draw or Carlisle

60%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

17%

Carlisle wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

71%

Gillingham 2+ goals

35%

Gillingham 3+ goals

13%

Carlisle 1+ goals

66%

Carlisle 2+ goals

29%

Carlisle 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

55%

Carlisle (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.09 · 102 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.12 + Carlisle defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Carlisle attack 1.07 + Gillingham defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gillingham scores more

40%

level

28%

Carlisle scores more

32%

Gillingham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

S. Williams

Gillingham · M

8.0

Match Events

45+3'

Alex MacDonald

45+3'

Joe Garner

56'

J. Gibson← J. Garner

56'

R. Edmondson← J. Gordon

58'

Owen Moxon

73'

D. Jefferies← A. OBrien

73'

G. Lapslie← A. MacDonald

75'

Oliver Hawkins

78'

J. Robinson← O. Patrick

78'

K. Dennis← J. Senior

84'

T. Abrahams← T. Nichols

87'

Ben Barclay

90+2'

Kristian Dennis

90+1'

Morgan Feeney

90+5'

W. Wright← O. Hawkins

90+4'

S. Williams

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamCarlisle

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots3

6Corners3

12Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots3

3On Target1

4Off Target1

2Blocked1

6Inside Box2

3Outside Box1

Passing

51%Possession49%

311Total Passes307

181Accurate Passes170

58%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls17

2Yellow Cards5

3Offsides0