Carlisle 1–0 Gillingham: Result & Stats

Carlisle

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gillingham

J. Mellish 55'

8/27/2022

League Two · Round 6Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Carlisle42%

×Draw28%

Gillingham30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.05

Carlisle

1.31

Gillingham

1.05

Carlisle creates 25% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 101 away

1.26

creates per match

0.90

1.21

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Carlisle

1.26

Gillingham

0.90

allows per match

Carlisle

1.21

Gillingham

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

70%

Carlisle or Gillingham

72%

Draw or Gillingham

58%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

19%

Gillingham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

73%

Carlisle 2+ goals

38%

Carlisle 3+ goals

14%

Gillingham 1+ goals

65%

Gillingham 2+ goals

28%

Gillingham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

59%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Gillingham away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.35 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Gillingham defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Gillingham attack 0.90 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Carlisle scores more

42%

level

28%

Gillingham scores more

30%

Carlisle at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

J. Mellish

Carlisle · D

7.9

Match Events

29'

David Tutonda

51'

R. Law← D. Tutonda

55'

J. Mellish↳ J. Armer

64'

L. Walker← M. Mandron

64'

S. Kashket← C. Alexander

70'

Jordan Gibson

70'

Stuart O'Keefe

72'

M. Feeney← P. Huntington

77'

S. Hilton← O. Moxon

77'

J. Harris← O. Patrick

77'

A. MacDonald← H. Adelakun

90+4'

D. Idehen← J. Armer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleGillingham

Overview

48%Possession52%

6Total Shots8

1Corners4

9Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots8

2On Target3

2Off Target3

2Blocked2

4Inside Box4

2Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

366Total Passes390

219Accurate Passes257

60%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2