Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gillingham vs Bromley — League Two 2018

Gillingham
Gillingham
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Bromley
Bromley
B. Dack 44'
B. Thompson 48', 19', 10'
C. Whitely 27'
1/31/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 30Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Gillingham38%
×Draw25%
Bromley38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gillingham
1.44
Bromley
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

creates per match

Gillingham
1.38
Bromley
1.23

allows per match

Gillingham
1.66
Bromley
1.50

finishing

Gillingham-0.17scores less
Bromley+0.77scores more

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Bromley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw
62%
Gillingham or Bromley
75%
Draw or Bromley
62%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+
18%
Bromley wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals
76%
Gillingham 2+ goals
42%
Gillingham 3+ goals
18%
Bromley 1+ goals
76%
Bromley 2+ goals
42%
Bromley 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)
50%
Bromley (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 14 matches

Bromley away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.50 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.38 + Bromley defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Bromley attack 1.23 + Gillingham defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gillingham scores more
38%
level
25%
Bromley scores more
38%

Gillingham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
B. ThompsonBromleyBromley · M
10.0

Match Events

6'
Armani Little
10'
B. Thompson↳ C. Whitely
19'
B. Thompson
27'
Mitchell Pinnock
27'
C. Whitely↳ B. Thompson
42'
E. Coleman← C. Masterson
44'
B. Dack
45+2'
Corey Whitely
46'
R. Hale← A. Rowe
48'
B. Thompson
64'
J. Arthurs← W. Hondermarck
70'
B. Krauhaus← B. Thompson
73'
R. Hutton← G. McCleary
74'
S. Vokes← J. Andrews
85'
C. Antwi← B. Dack
88'
B. Ilunga← M. Pinnock
89'
Zech Medley
89'
N. Kabamba← M. Cheek

Possession

67%Gillingham

Shots

20Gillingham

Pass accuracy

61%Gillingham

Statistics

GillinghamBromley
Overview
67%Possession33%
20Total Shots13
2.15Expected Goals (xG)1.78
8Corners0
5Fouls9
Shots
20Total Shots13
11On Target6
5Off Target5
4Blocked2
13Inside Box6
7Outside Box7
Passing
67%Possession33%
447Total Passes230
298Accurate Passes99
67%Pass Accuracy43%
Goalkeeping
2Saves10
Discipline
5Fouls9
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Gillingham vs Bromley

Bromley beat Gillingham 4-1 in League Two on January 31, 2026.

Goals: B. Thompson (10', 19', 48'), C. Whitely (27'), B. Dack (44').

Gillingham controlled possession (67%) and registered 20 shots to 13.

The match was played at Priestfield Stadium in Gillingham.