Bromley 2–2 Gillingham: Result & Stats | League Two

Bromley

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Gillingham

M. Cheek 12'

N. Kabamba 7'

M. Clark 90' (pen)

J. Andrews 56'

9/6/2025

League Two · Round 7Hayes Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Bromley55%

×Draw23%

Gillingham22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BromleyExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.02

Bromley

1.77

Gillingham

1.02

Bromley creates 74% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

1.86

creates per match

1.05

0.99

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Bromley

1.86

Gillingham

1.05

allows per match

Bromley

0.99

Gillingham

1.68

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Bromley-0.26scores less

Gillingham-0.32scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bromley ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bromley or draw

78%

Bromley or Gillingham

77%

Draw or Gillingham

45%

Winning margin

Bromley wins by 2+

31%

Gillingham wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bromley 1+ goals

83%

Bromley 2+ goals

53%

Bromley 3+ goals

26%

Gillingham 1+ goals

64%

Gillingham 2+ goals

27%

Gillingham 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bromley (draw refunded)

72%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bromley at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.99 · 5 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.68 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bromley attack 1.86 + Gillingham defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.77

Gillingham attack 1.05 + Bromley defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bromley scores more

55%

level

23%

Gillingham scores more

22%

Bromley at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bromley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

N. Kabamba

Bromley · F

8.2

Match Events

7'

N. Kabamba↳ M. Cheek

12'

M. Cheek↳ I. Odutayo

45'

Elliott Nevitt

52'

B. Webster← K. Cameron

56'

J. Andrews↳ R. Hutton

57'

N. Khumbeni← E. Coleman

58'

B. Krauhaus← M. Ifill

58'

J. Arthurs← C. Whitely

63'

J. Smith← R. Hutton

64'

G. McCleary← A. Little

64'

67'

70'

84'

87'

M. Dinanga← N. Kabamba

90+12'

Ashley Charles

90'

M. ClarkPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BromleyGillingham

Overview

47%Possession53%

16Total Shots15

5Corners7

8Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots15

6On Target5

3Off Target8

7Blocked2

11Inside Box11

5Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

293Total Passes313

159Accurate Passes187

54%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

5Offsides0