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Gillingham vs Bristol Rovers — League Two 2018

Gillingham
Gillingham
Preview
14:00
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
9/19/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 7Priestfield Stadium
Big match
42%
Bristol Rovers
model favours
33%25%42%

Bristol Rovers score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Gillingham33%
×Draw25%
Bristol Rovers42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gillingham
1.29
Bristol Rovers
1.50

Bristol Rovers creates 16% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

creates per match

Gillingham
1.38
Bristol Rovers
1.33

allows per match

Gillingham
1.66
Bristol Rovers
1.20

finishing

Gillingham-0.17scores less
Bristol Rovers-0.06on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw
58%
Gillingham or Bristol Rovers
75%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
67%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+
14%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals
72%
Gillingham 2+ goals
37%
Gillingham 3+ goals
14%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
78%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
44%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)
44%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 14 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.38 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bristol Rovers attack 1.33 + Gillingham defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gillingham scores more
33%
level
25%
Bristol Rovers scores more
42%

Bristol Rovers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Bristol Rovers’s matches
  • 73% of Bristol Rovers’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Gillingham
Balanced
Bristol Rovers
Defensively solid
48%PossessionBiggest gap51%
64%Pass accuracy65%
11.6Shots11.7
1.30xG1.32
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GillinghamBristol Rovers

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

4
Gillingham
1
Draws
2
Bristol Rovers
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 43%
1–21–02–02–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Gillingham
WLWWL
Rovers
DDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gillingham face Bristol Rovers (League Two)

League Two returns with Gillingham hosting Bristol Rovers. Match starts September 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Gillingham host Bristol Rovers at Priestfield Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.