Gillingham 1–2 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol Rovers

R. Hale 16' (pen)

E. Harrison 72'

A. Kilgour 46'

3/21/2026

League Two · Round 39Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Gillingham33%

×Draw25%

Bristol Rovers42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.50

Gillingham

1.29

Bristol Rovers

1.50

Bristol Rovers creates 16% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

1.38

creates per match

1.33

1.66

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Gillingham

1.38

Bristol Rovers

1.33

allows per match

Gillingham

1.66

Bristol Rovers

1.20

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Gillingham-0.17scores less

Bristol Rovers-0.06on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

58%

Gillingham or Bristol Rovers

75%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

67%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

14%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

72%

Gillingham 2+ goals

37%

Gillingham 3+ goals

14%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

78%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

44%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

44%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 14 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.38 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bristol Rovers attack 1.33 + Gillingham defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gillingham scores more

33%

level

25%

Bristol Rovers scores more

42%

Bristol Rovers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

R. De Havilland

Bristol Rovers · M

7.7

Match Events

16'

R. HalePenalty

34'

Tommy Leigh

35'

Harry Waldock

45'

Alfie Kilgour

46'

R. De Havilland← J. Sparkes

46'

K. Thompson-Sommers← F. Cavegn

46'

Y. Akhamrich← T. Leigh

46'

L. Thomas← R. Harbottle

46'

A. Kilgour↳ R. De Havilland

59'

S. Ogie← A. Smith

71'

Remeao Hutton

72'

E. Harrison

77'

S. Vokes← J. Andrews

77'

S. Palmer-Houlden← M. Clark

78'

G. McCleary← H. Waldock

82'

J. Quigley← E. Harrison

89'

90+13'

90+13'

90+10'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamBristol

Overview

54%Possession46%

9Total Shots18

1.06Expected Goals (xG)2.52

4Corners5

12Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots18

3On Target8

3Off Target4

3Blocked6

7Inside Box11

2Outside Box7

Passing

54%Possession46%

285Total Passes224

168Accurate Passes120

59%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls15

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

6Offsides7