Bristol Rovers 0–1 Gillingham: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gillingham

M. Clark 54'

11/8/2025

League Two · Round 15Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Bristol Rovers42%

×Draw26%

Gillingham32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.21

Bristol Rovers

1.42

Gillingham

1.21

Bristol Rovers creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.31

creates per match

1.21

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.31

Gillingham

1.21

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.21

Gillingham

1.53

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.23scores more

Gillingham-0.29scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

68%

Bristol Rovers or Gillingham

74%

Draw or Gillingham

58%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

20%

Gillingham wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

76%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

41%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

17%

Gillingham 1+ goals

70%

Gillingham 2+ goals

34%

Gillingham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

57%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.21 · 13 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.53 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.31 + Gillingham defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42

Gillingham attack 1.21 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

42%

level

26%

Gillingham scores more

32%

Bristol Rovers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

R. Hutton

Gillingham · D

7.9

Match Events

31'

32'

54'

62'

68'

73'

K. Conteh← J. Cotterill

74'

F. Issaka← B. Bilongo

76'

S. Ogie← J. Andrews

77'

B. Dack← N. Khumbeni

82'

J. Sparkes← T. Lockyer

83'

O. Dewsbury← R. Sotiriou

84'

G. McCleary← S. Palmer-Houlden

84'

A. Rowe← E. Nevitt

90+1'

Robbie McKenzie

90+1'

Garath McCleary

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolGillingham

Overview

70%Possession30%

17Total Shots7

1.82Expected Goals (xG)1.52

12Corners3

3Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots7

4On Target2

8Off Target3

5Blocked2

9Inside Box4

8Outside Box3

Passing

70%Possession30%

506Total Passes218

403Accurate Passes118

80%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

3Fouls14

1Yellow Cards4

0Offsides3

Match Recap: Bristol Rovers vs Gillingham

Gillingham beat Bristol Rovers 1-0 in League Two on November 8, 2025.

Goals: M. Clark (54').

Bristol Rovers controlled possession (70%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol.

Bristol Rovers vs Gillingham — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bristol Rovers vs Gillingham