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Gillingham vs Barnsley — League One 2018

Gillingham
Gillingham
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Barnsley
Barnsley
2/9/2019League OneLeague One · Round 32Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Gillingham31%
×Draw25%
Barnsley44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gillingham
1.24
Barnsley
1.52

Barnsley creates 23% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 121 away

creates per match

Gillingham
1.18
Barnsley
1.57

allows per match

Gillingham
1.47
Barnsley
1.30

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw
56%
Gillingham or Barnsley
75%
Draw or Barnsley
69%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+
13%
Barnsley wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals
71%
Gillingham 2+ goals
35%
Gillingham 3+ goals
13%
Barnsley 1+ goals
78%
Barnsley 2+ goals
45%
Barnsley 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)
42%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.47 · 103 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.30 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.18 + Barnsley defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.24

Barnsley attack 1.57 + Gillingham defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gillingham scores more
31%
level
25%
Barnsley scores more
44%

Barnsley at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gillingham vs Barnsley

Barnsley beat Gillingham 4-1 in League One on February 9, 2019.

The match was played at Priestfield Stadium in Gillingham.