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Barnsley vs Gillingham — League One 2018

Barnsley
Barnsley
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Gillingham
Gillingham
9/1/2018League OneLeague One · Round 6Oakwell Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Barnsley44%
×Draw25%
Gillingham31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnsley
1.53
Gillingham
1.24

Barnsley creates 23% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 101 away

creates per match

Barnsley
1.68
Gillingham
1.18

allows per match

Barnsley
1.30
Gillingham
1.38

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par
Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw
69%
Barnsley or Gillingham
75%
Draw or Gillingham
56%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+
22%
Gillingham wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals
78%
Barnsley 2+ goals
45%
Barnsley 3+ goals
20%
Gillingham 1+ goals
71%
Gillingham 2+ goals
35%
Gillingham 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)
59%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.30 · 122 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.68 + Gillingham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.53

Gillingham attack 1.18 + Barnsley defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Barnsley scores more
44%
level
25%
Gillingham scores more
31%

Barnsley at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barnsley vs Gillingham

Barnsley beat Gillingham 2-1 in League One on September 1, 2018.

The match was played at Oakwell Ground in Barnsley.