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Gil Vicente U23 vs Famalicão U23 — Taça Revelação U23 2020

Gil Vicente U23
Gil Vicente U23
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Famalicão U23
Famalicão U23
5/16/2023Taça Revelação U23Taça Revelação U23 · Group Stage - 3Estádio de Vila Chã

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gil Vicente U2347%
×Draw23%
Famalicão U2330%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gil Vicente U23
1.83
Famalicão U23
1.42

Gil Vicente U23 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Gil Vicente U23
1.50
Famalicão U23
1.00

allows per match

Gil Vicente U23
1.83
Famalicão U23
2.17

finishing

Gil Vicente U23+0.00on par
Famalicão U23+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gil Vicente U23 ↓

Famalicão U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gil Vicente U23 or draw
70%
Gil Vicente U23 or Famalicão U23
77%
Draw or Famalicão U23
53%

Winning margin

Gil Vicente U23 wins by 2+
26%
Famalicão U23 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gil Vicente U23 1+ goals
84%
Gil Vicente U23 2+ goals
54%
Gil Vicente U23 3+ goals
28%
Famalicão U23 1+ goals
76%
Famalicão U23 2+ goals
41%
Famalicão U23 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Gil Vicente U23 (draw refunded)
61%
Famalicão U23 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gil Vicente U23 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Famalicão U23 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gil Vicente U23 attack 1.50 + Famalicão U23 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.83

Famalicão U23 attack 1.00 + Gil Vicente U23 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gil Vicente U23 scores more
47%
level
23%
Famalicão U23 scores more
30%

Gil Vicente U23 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gil Vicente U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça Revelação U23: Gil Vicente U23 1–3 Famalicão U23

Famalicão U23 beat Gil Vicente U23 3-1 in Taça Revelação U23 on May 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio de Vila Chã in Vila Chã.