Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Famalicão U23 vs Gil Vicente U23 — Taça Revelação U23 2020

Famalicão U23
Famalicão U23advanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Gil Vicente U23
Gil Vicente U23
5/10/2024Taça Revelação U23Taça Revelação U23 · Quarter-finalsComplexo Desportivo FC Famalicão - Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Famalicão U2338%
×Draw22%
Gil Vicente U2340%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Famalicão U23
1.77
Gil Vicente U23
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Famalicão U23
1.55
Gil Vicente U23
2.00

allows per match

Famalicão U23
1.64
Gil Vicente U23
2.00

finishing

Famalicão U23+0.00on par
Gil Vicente U23+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Famalicão U23 ↓

Gil Vicente U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Famalicão U23 or draw
60%
Famalicão U23 or Gil Vicente U23
78%
Draw or Gil Vicente U23
62%

Winning margin

Famalicão U23 wins by 2+
20%
Gil Vicente U23 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Famalicão U23 1+ goals
83%
Famalicão U23 2+ goals
53%
Famalicão U23 3+ goals
26%
Gil Vicente U23 1+ goals
84%
Gil Vicente U23 2+ goals
54%
Gil Vicente U23 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Famalicão U23 (draw refunded)
49%
Gil Vicente U23 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Famalicão U23 at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Gil Vicente U23 away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Famalicão U23 attack 1.55 + Gil Vicente U23 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Gil Vicente U23 attack 2.00 + Famalicão U23 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Famalicão U23 scores more
38%
level
22%
Gil Vicente U23 scores more
40%

Gil Vicente U23 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gil Vicente U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça Revelação U23: Famalicão U23 3–1 Gil Vicente U23

Famalicão U23 beat Gil Vicente U23 3-1 in Taça Revelação U23 on May 10, 2024.

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo FC Famalicão - Campo 2 in Vila Nova de Famalicão.