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Gigant Saedinenie vs FK Svilengrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Gigant Saedinenie
Gigant Saedinenie
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FK Svilengrad
FK Svilengrad
9/7/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 6Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Gigant Saedinenie62%
×Draw20%
FK Svilengrad17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gigant Saedinenie
2.11
FK Svilengrad
1.01

Gigant Saedinenie creates 109% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 18 away

creates per match

Gigant Saedinenie
1.83
FK Svilengrad
1.28

allows per match

Gigant Saedinenie
0.74
FK Svilengrad
2.39

finishing

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par
FK Svilengrad+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gigant Saedinenie ↓

FK Svilengrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Gigant Saedinenie or draw
83%
Gigant Saedinenie or FK Svilengrad
80%
Draw or FK Svilengrad
38%

Winning margin

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+
39%
FK Svilengrad wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals
88%
Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals
62%
Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals
35%
FK Svilengrad 1+ goals
64%
FK Svilengrad 2+ goals
27%
FK Svilengrad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)
78%
FK Svilengrad (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gigant Saedinenie at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.74 · 135 matches

FK Svilengrad away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.83 + FK Svilengrad defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.11

FK Svilengrad attack 1.28 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Gigant Saedinenie scores more
62%
level
20%
FK Svilengrad scores more
17%

Gigant Saedinenie at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Gigant Saedinenie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Gigant Saedinenie 3–2 FK Svilengrad

Gigant Saedinenie beat FK Svilengrad 3-2 in Third League - Southeast on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Saedinenie.