FK Svilengrad 1–0 Gigant Saedinenie: Result & Stats

FK Svilengrad

FT

1 – 0

Gigant Saedinenie

3/22/2025

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 25Stadion Kolodruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FK Svilengrad49%

×Draw22%

Gigant Saedinenie29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK SvilengradExpected goals in this matchGigant Saedinenie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.48

FK Svilengrad

1.95

Gigant Saedinenie

1.48

FK Svilengrad creates 32% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 136 away

2.47

creates per match

1.17

1.79

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

FK Svilengrad

2.47

Gigant Saedinenie

1.17

allows per match

FK Svilengrad

1.79

Gigant Saedinenie

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Svilengrad+0.00on par

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Svilengrad ↓

Gigant Saedinenie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

FK Svilengrad or draw

71%

FK Svilengrad or Gigant Saedinenie

78%

Draw or Gigant Saedinenie

51%

Winning margin

FK Svilengrad wins by 2+

27%

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FK Svilengrad 1+ goals

86%

FK Svilengrad 2+ goals

58%

FK Svilengrad 3+ goals

31%

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals

77%

Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals

43%

Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

FK Svilengrad (draw refunded)

62%

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Svilengrad at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Gigant Saedinenie away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Svilengrad attack 2.47 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.95

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.17 + FK Svilengrad defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FK Svilengrad scores more

49%

level

22%

Gigant Saedinenie scores more

29%

FK Svilengrad at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FK Svilengrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff