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Gigant Saedinenie vs FK Sliven — Third League - Southeast 2018

Gigant Saedinenie
Gigant Saedinenie
FT
11 – 0
FK Sliven
FK Sliven
8/5/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 1Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Gigant Saedinenie78%
×Draw13%
FK Sliven8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gigant Saedinenie
2.88
FK Sliven
0.84

Gigant Saedinenie creates 243% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 38 away

creates per match

Gigant Saedinenie
1.83
FK Sliven
0.95

allows per match

Gigant Saedinenie
0.74
FK Sliven
3.92

finishing

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par
FK Sliven+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gigant Saedinenie ↓

FK Sliven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Gigant Saedinenie or draw
92%
Gigant Saedinenie or FK Sliven
87%
Draw or FK Sliven
22%

Winning margin

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+
58%
FK Sliven wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals
94%
Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals
78%
Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals
54%
FK Sliven 1+ goals
57%
FK Sliven 2+ goals
21%
FK Sliven 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)
90%
FK Sliven (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gigant Saedinenie at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.74 · 135 matches

FK Sliven away — creates 0.95, concedes 3.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.83 + FK Sliven defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 2.88

FK Sliven attack 0.95 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Gigant Saedinenie scores more
78%
level
13%
FK Sliven scores more
8%

Gigant Saedinenie at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Gigant Saedinenie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gigant Saedinenie vs FK Sliven

Gigant Saedinenie beat FK Sliven 11-0 in Third League - Southeast on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Saedinenie.