FK Sliven 0–0 Gigant Saedinenie: Result & Stats

FK Sliven

FT

0 – 0

Gigant Saedinenie

2/17/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 20Stadion Hadzhi Dimitar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

FK Sliven39%

×Draw24%

Gigant Saedinenie37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK SlivenExpected goals in this matchGigant Saedinenie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.52

FK Sliven

1.55

Gigant Saedinenie

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 136 away

1.68

creates per match

1.17

1.87

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

FK Sliven

1.68

Gigant Saedinenie

1.17

allows per match

FK Sliven

1.87

Gigant Saedinenie

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Sliven+0.00on par

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sliven ↓

Gigant Saedinenie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FK Sliven or draw

63%

FK Sliven or Gigant Saedinenie

76%

Draw or Gigant Saedinenie

61%

Winning margin

FK Sliven wins by 2+

19%

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

FK Sliven 1+ goals

79%

FK Sliven 2+ goals

46%

FK Sliven 3+ goals

20%

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals

78%

Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals

45%

Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

FK Sliven (draw refunded)

51%

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sliven at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

Gigant Saedinenie away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sliven attack 1.68 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.55

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.17 + FK Sliven defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FK Sliven scores more

39%

level

24%

Gigant Saedinenie scores more

37%

FK Sliven at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FK Sliven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff