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Gigant Saedinenie vs Dimitrovgrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Gigant Saedinenie
Gigant Saedinenie
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dimitrovgrad
Dimitrovgrad
8/30/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 5Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Gigant Saedinenie64%
×Draw22%
Dimitrovgrad15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gigant Saedinenie
1.89
Dimitrovgrad
0.77

Gigant Saedinenie creates 145% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 135 away

creates per match

Gigant Saedinenie
1.83
Dimitrovgrad
0.80

allows per match

Gigant Saedinenie
0.74
Dimitrovgrad
1.95

finishing

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par
Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gigant Saedinenie ↓

Dimitrovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gigant Saedinenie or draw
85%
Gigant Saedinenie or Dimitrovgrad
78%
Draw or Dimitrovgrad
36%

Winning margin

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+
38%
Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals
85%
Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals
56%
Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals
29%
Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals
54%
Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals
18%
Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)
81%
Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gigant Saedinenie at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.74 · 135 matches

Dimitrovgrad away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.95 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.83 + Dimitrovgrad defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.89

Dimitrovgrad attack 0.80 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Gigant Saedinenie scores more
64%
level
22%
Dimitrovgrad scores more
15%

Gigant Saedinenie at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Gigant Saedinenie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Gigant Saedinenie 3–1 Dimitrovgrad

Gigant Saedinenie beat Dimitrovgrad 3-1 in Third League - Southeast on August 30, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Saedinenie.