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Dimitrovgrad vs Gigant Saedinenie — Third League - Southeast 2018

Dimitrovgrad
Dimitrovgrad
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 4
Gigant Saedinenie
Gigant Saedinenie
5/23/2026Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 37

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Dimitrovgrad45%
×Draw26%
Gigant Saedinenie29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dimitrovgrad
1.50
Gigant Saedinenie
1.15

Dimitrovgrad creates 30% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 136 away

creates per match

Dimitrovgrad
1.58
Gigant Saedinenie
1.17

allows per match

Dimitrovgrad
1.12
Gigant Saedinenie
1.42

finishing

Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par
Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimitrovgrad ↓

Gigant Saedinenie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dimitrovgrad or draw
71%
Dimitrovgrad or Gigant Saedinenie
74%
Draw or Gigant Saedinenie
55%

Winning margin

Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+
22%
Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals
78%
Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals
44%
Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals
19%
Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals
68%
Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals
32%
Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)
61%
Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimitrovgrad at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.12 · 136 matches

Gigant Saedinenie away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimitrovgrad attack 1.58 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.17 + Dimitrovgrad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dimitrovgrad scores more
45%
level
26%
Gigant Saedinenie scores more
29%

Dimitrovgrad at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dimitrovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Dimitrovgrad 0–4 Gigant Saedinenie

Gigant Saedinenie beat Dimitrovgrad 4-0 in Third League - Southeast on May 23, 2026.