Gigant Saedinenie 3–0 Borislav 2009: Result & Stats

Gigant Saedinenie

FT

3 – 0

Borislav 2009

9/10/2022

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 6Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Gigant Saedinenie68%

×Draw19%

Borislav 200913%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gigant SaedinenieExpected goals in this matchBorislav 2009

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.82

Gigant Saedinenie

2.17

Borislav 2009

0.82

Gigant Saedinenie creates 165% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 79 away

1.83

creates per match

0.91

0.74

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Gigant Saedinenie

1.83

Borislav 2009

0.91

allows per match

Gigant Saedinenie

0.74

Borislav 2009

2.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par

Borislav 2009+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gigant Saedinenie ↓

Borislav 2009 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Gigant Saedinenie or draw

87%

Gigant Saedinenie or Borislav 2009

81%

Draw or Borislav 2009

32%

Winning margin

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+

44%

Borislav 2009 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals

89%

Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals

64%

Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals

36%

Borislav 2009 1+ goals

56%

Borislav 2009 2+ goals

20%

Borislav 2009 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)

84%

Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gigant Saedinenie at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.74 · 135 matches

Borislav 2009 away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.52 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.83 + Borislav 2009 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.17

Borislav 2009 attack 0.91 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Gigant Saedinenie scores more

68%

level

19%

Borislav 2009 scores more

13%

Gigant Saedinenie at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Gigant Saedinenie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff