Borislav 2009 0–1 Gigant Saedinenie: Result & Stats

Borislav 2009

FT

0 – 1

Gigant Saedinenie

3/27/2021

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 23Stadion Borislav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Borislav 200943%

×Draw25%

Gigant Saedinenie31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borislav 2009Expected goals in this matchGigant Saedinenie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.23

Borislav 2009

1.50

Gigant Saedinenie

1.23

Borislav 2009 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 136 away

1.59

creates per match

1.17

1.29

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Borislav 2009

1.59

Gigant Saedinenie

1.17

allows per match

Borislav 2009

1.29

Gigant Saedinenie

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borislav 2009+0.00on par

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borislav 2009 ↓

Gigant Saedinenie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Borislav 2009 or draw

69%

Borislav 2009 or Gigant Saedinenie

75%

Draw or Gigant Saedinenie

57%

Winning margin

Borislav 2009 wins by 2+

21%

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Borislav 2009 1+ goals

78%

Borislav 2009 2+ goals

44%

Borislav 2009 3+ goals

19%

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals

71%

Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals

35%

Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)

58%

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borislav 2009 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

Gigant Saedinenie away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borislav 2009 attack 1.59 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.17 + Borislav 2009 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Borislav 2009 scores more

43%

level

25%

Gigant Saedinenie scores more

31%

Borislav 2009 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Borislav 2009 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff