Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gigant Saedinenie vs Asenovets — Third League - Southeast 2018

Gigant Saedinenie
Gigant Saedinenie
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Asenovets
Asenovets
11/9/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 16Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Gigant Saedinenie67%
×Draw19%
Asenovets14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gigant Saedinenie
2.22
Asenovets
0.91

Gigant Saedinenie creates 144% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 109 away

creates per match

Gigant Saedinenie
1.83
Asenovets
1.07

allows per match

Gigant Saedinenie
0.74
Asenovets
2.61

finishing

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par
Asenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gigant Saedinenie ↓

Asenovets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Gigant Saedinenie or draw
86%
Gigant Saedinenie or Asenovets
81%
Draw or Asenovets
33%

Winning margin

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+
43%
Asenovets wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals
89%
Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals
65%
Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals
38%
Asenovets 1+ goals
60%
Asenovets 2+ goals
23%
Asenovets 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)
82%
Asenovets (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gigant Saedinenie at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.74 · 135 matches

Asenovets away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.61 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.83 + Asenovets defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.22

Asenovets attack 1.07 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Gigant Saedinenie scores more
67%
level
19%
Asenovets scores more
14%

Gigant Saedinenie at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Gigant Saedinenie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gigant Saedinenie vs Asenovets

Gigant Saedinenie beat Asenovets 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Saedinenie.