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Asenovets vs Gigant Saedinenie — Third League - Southeast 2018

Asenovets
Asenovets
FT
2 – 6
HT: 1 – 3
Gigant Saedinenie
Gigant Saedinenie
3/9/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 23Stadion Shipka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Asenovets43%
×Draw25%
Gigant Saedinenie32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asenovets
1.52
Gigant Saedinenie
1.28

Asenovets creates 19% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 136 away

creates per match

Asenovets
1.61
Gigant Saedinenie
1.17

allows per match

Asenovets
1.40
Gigant Saedinenie
1.42

finishing

Asenovets+0.00on par
Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asenovets ↓

Gigant Saedinenie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Asenovets or draw
68%
Asenovets or Gigant Saedinenie
75%
Draw or Gigant Saedinenie
57%

Winning margin

Asenovets wins by 2+
21%
Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Asenovets 1+ goals
78%
Asenovets 2+ goals
45%
Asenovets 3+ goals
20%
Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals
72%
Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals
37%
Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Asenovets (draw refunded)
57%
Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asenovets at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.40 · 109 matches

Gigant Saedinenie away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asenovets attack 1.61 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.17 + Asenovets defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Asenovets scores more
43%
level
25%
Gigant Saedinenie scores more
32%

Asenovets at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Asenovets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Asenovets 2–6 Gigant Saedinenie

Gigant Saedinenie beat Asenovets 6-2 in Third League - Southeast on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Shipka in Asenovgrad.