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GIF Sundsvall vs Dalkurd FF — Allsvenskan 2018

GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
11/11/2018AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 30NP3 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

GIF Sundsvall44%
×Draw25%
Dalkurd FF32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GIF Sundsvall
1.56
Dalkurd FF
1.29

GIF Sundsvall creates 21% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

GIF Sundsvall
1.40
Dalkurd FF
0.80

allows per match

GIF Sundsvall
1.78
Dalkurd FF
1.73

finishing

GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GIF Sundsvall ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

GIF Sundsvall or draw
68%
GIF Sundsvall or Dalkurd FF
75%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
56%

Winning margin

GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+
22%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals
79%
GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals
46%
GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals
21%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
72%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
37%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)
58%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GIF Sundsvall at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.78 · 45 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.40 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dalkurd FF attack 0.80 + GIF Sundsvall defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

GIF Sundsvall scores more
44%
level
25%
Dalkurd FF scores more
32%

GIF Sundsvall at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "GIF Sundsvall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: GIF Sundsvall 0–1 Dalkurd FF

Dalkurd FF beat GIF Sundsvall 1-0 in Allsvenskan on November 11, 2018.

The match was played at NP3 Arena in Sundsvall.