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Dalkurd FF vs GIF Sundsvall — Superettan 2018

Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall
10/21/2020SuperettanSuperettan · Round 24Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Dalkurd FF42%
×Draw25%
GIF Sundsvall33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalkurd FF
1.48
GIF Sundsvall
1.27

Dalkurd FF creates 17% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 82 away

creates per match

Dalkurd FF
1.52
GIF Sundsvall
1.11

allows per match

Dalkurd FF
1.44
GIF Sundsvall
1.45

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par
GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

GIF Sundsvall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw
67%
Dalkurd FF or GIF Sundsvall
75%
Draw or GIF Sundsvall
58%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
20%
GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
77%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
43%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
19%
GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals
72%
GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals
36%
GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
56%
GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 48 matches

GIF Sundsvall away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.45 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.52 + GIF Sundsvall defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.11 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more
42%
level
25%
GIF Sundsvall scores more
33%

Dalkurd FF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dalkurd FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dalkurd FF vs GIF Sundsvall

GIF Sundsvall beat Dalkurd FF 3-1 in Superettan on October 21, 2020.

The match was played at Studenternas IP in Uppsala.