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Gievenbeck vs Delbrücker SC — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Gievenbeck
Gievenbeck
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Delbrücker SC
Delbrücker SC
8/21/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 2Sportpark Gievenbeck

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gievenbeck58%
×Draw20%
Delbrücker SC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gievenbeck
2.29
Delbrücker SC
1.38

Gievenbeck creates 66% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 17 away

creates per match

Gievenbeck
1.81
Delbrücker SC
1.41

allows per match

Gievenbeck
1.35
Delbrücker SC
2.76

finishing

Gievenbeck+0.00on par
Delbrücker SC+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gievenbeck ↓

Delbrücker SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Gievenbeck or draw
77%
Gievenbeck or Delbrücker SC
80%
Draw or Delbrücker SC
42%

Winning margin

Gievenbeck wins by 2+
36%
Delbrücker SC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gievenbeck 1+ goals
90%
Gievenbeck 2+ goals
66%
Gievenbeck 3+ goals
40%
Delbrücker SC 1+ goals
75%
Delbrücker SC 2+ goals
40%
Delbrücker SC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Gievenbeck (draw refunded)
72%
Delbrücker SC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gievenbeck at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.35 · 69 matches

Delbrücker SC away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gievenbeck attack 1.81 + Delbrücker SC defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.29

Delbrücker SC attack 1.41 + Gievenbeck defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gievenbeck scores more
58%
level
20%
Delbrücker SC scores more
23%

Gievenbeck at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gievenbeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gievenbeck vs Delbrücker SC

Delbrücker SC beat Gievenbeck 3-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Gievenbeck in Münster.