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Delbrücker SC vs Gievenbeck — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Delbrücker SC
Delbrücker SC
FT
0 – 0
Gievenbeck
Gievenbeck
2/12/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 19AM-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Delbrücker SC36%
×Draw25%
Gievenbeck38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delbrücker SC
1.38
Gievenbeck
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 70 away

creates per match

Delbrücker SC
1.35
Gievenbeck
1.43

allows per match

Delbrücker SC
1.41
Gievenbeck
1.41

finishing

Delbrücker SC+0.00on par
Gievenbeck+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delbrücker SC ↓

Gievenbeck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Delbrücker SC or draw
62%
Delbrücker SC or Gievenbeck
75%
Draw or Gievenbeck
64%

Winning margin

Delbrücker SC wins by 2+
17%
Gievenbeck wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Delbrücker SC 1+ goals
75%
Delbrücker SC 2+ goals
40%
Delbrücker SC 3+ goals
16%
Gievenbeck 1+ goals
76%
Gievenbeck 2+ goals
41%
Gievenbeck 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Delbrücker SC (draw refunded)
49%
Gievenbeck (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delbrücker SC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Gievenbeck away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delbrücker SC attack 1.35 + Gievenbeck defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38

Gievenbeck attack 1.43 + Delbrücker SC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Delbrücker SC scores more
36%
level
25%
Gievenbeck scores more
38%

Gievenbeck at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gievenbeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Delbrücker SC vs Gievenbeck

Delbrücker SC and Gievenbeck drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at AM-Stadion in Delbrück.