Gievenbeck 5–2 Concordia Wiemelhausen

Gievenbeck

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Concordia Wiemelhausen

Unknown 32', 30', 27'

Unknown 66'

8/18/2024

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 2Senger Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Gievenbeck65%

×Draw17%

Concordia Wiemelhausen17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GievenbeckExpected goals in this matchConcordia Wiemelhausen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

1.31

Gievenbeck

2.63

Concordia Wiemelhausen

1.31

Gievenbeck creates 101% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 18 away

1.81

creates per match

1.28

1.35

allows per match

3.44

creates per match

Gievenbeck

1.81

Concordia Wiemelhausen

1.28

allows per match

Gievenbeck

1.35

Concordia Wiemelhausen

3.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gievenbeck+0.00on par

Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gievenbeck ↓

Concordia Wiemelhausen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Gievenbeck or draw

83%

Gievenbeck or Concordia Wiemelhausen

83%

Draw or Concordia Wiemelhausen

35%

Winning margin

Gievenbeck wins by 2+

44%

Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Gievenbeck 1+ goals

93%

Gievenbeck 2+ goals

73%

Gievenbeck 3+ goals

48%

Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals

73%

Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals

38%

Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Gievenbeck (draw refunded)

79%

Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gievenbeck at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.35 · 69 matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gievenbeck attack 1.81 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.63

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 1.28 + Gievenbeck defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Gievenbeck scores more

65%

level

17%

Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more

17%

Gievenbeck at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Gievenbeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

30'

32'

66'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff