Concordia Wiemelhausen 1–1 Gievenbeck

Concordia Wiemelhausen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Gievenbeck

2/2/2025

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 21Sportpark Concordia Wiemelhausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen35%

×Draw22%

Gievenbeck43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Concordia WiemelhausenExpected goals in this matchGievenbeck

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.95

Concordia Wiemelhausen

1.73

Gievenbeck

1.95

Gievenbeck creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 70 away

2.05

creates per match

1.43

2.47

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Concordia Wiemelhausen

2.05

Gievenbeck

1.43

allows per match

Concordia Wiemelhausen

2.47

Gievenbeck

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par

Gievenbeck+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Wiemelhausen ↓

Gievenbeck →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Concordia Wiemelhausen or draw

57%

Concordia Wiemelhausen or Gievenbeck

78%

Draw or Gievenbeck

65%

Winning margin

Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+

17%

Gievenbeck wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals

82%

Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals

52%

Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals

25%

Gievenbeck 1+ goals

86%

Gievenbeck 2+ goals

58%

Gievenbeck 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)

44%

Gievenbeck (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Wiemelhausen at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

Gievenbeck away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 2.05 + Gievenbeck defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.73

Gievenbeck attack 1.43 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more

35%

level

22%

Gievenbeck scores more

43%

Gievenbeck at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gievenbeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff