Ghazl El Mehalla 0–0 Ismaily SC: Result & Stats

Ghazl El Mehalla

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ismaily SC

5/3/2026

Premier League · Relegation Group - 8El-Gazel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Ghazl El Mehalla35%

×Draw32%

Ismaily SC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ghazl El MehallaExpected goals in this matchIsmaily SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

0.90

Ghazl El Mehalla

0.94

Ismaily SC

0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

0.92

creates per match

0.67

1.12

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Ghazl El Mehalla

0.92

Ismaily SC

0.67

allows per match

Ghazl El Mehalla

1.12

Ismaily SC

0.95

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

Ghazl El Mehalla+0.25scores more

Ismaily SC-0.27scores less

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ghazl El Mehalla ↓

Ismaily SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Ghazl El Mehalla or draw

67%

Ghazl El Mehalla or Ismaily SC

68%

Draw or Ismaily SC

65%

Winning margin

Ghazl El Mehalla wins by 2+

13%

Ismaily SC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ghazl El Mehalla 1+ goals

61%

Ghazl El Mehalla 2+ goals

24%

Ghazl El Mehalla 3+ goals

7%

Ismaily SC 1+ goals

59%

Ismaily SC 2+ goals

23%

Ismaily SC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ghazl El Mehalla (draw refunded)

52%

Ismaily SC (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ghazl El Mehalla at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.12 · 6 matches

Ismaily SC away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.95 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ghazl El Mehalla attack 0.92 + Ismaily SC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Ismaily SC attack 0.67 + Ghazl El Mehalla defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Ghazl El Mehalla scores more

35%

level

32%

Ismaily SC scores more

33%

Ghazl El Mehalla at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Ghazl El Mehalla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

A. El Aash

Ghazl El Mehalla · D

7.9

Match Events

27'

M. Abdelsalam← M. Toure

34'

A. Mohamed← A. Ayman

35'

I. El Nagaawy← A. El Said

41'

Nader Farag

45+5'

Abdel Karim Mostafa

46'

Y. El Azab← J. Mwanga

56'

A. Ineza← M. Ashraf

56'

M. Samir← A. Katkot

78'

A. El Dah← A. El Malawany

90+2'

Abdelrahim Amoory

90'

Yehia Zakaria

90'

A. Magdy← A. Etman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GhazlIsmaily

Overview

58%Possession42%

15Total Shots7

0.91Expected Goals (xG)0.86

6Corners2

7Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots7

2On Target3

9Off Target3

4Blocked1

10Inside Box4

5Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

405Total Passes296

313Accurate Passes197

77%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

0.12Goals Prevented0.12

Discipline

7Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0