Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ghazl El Mehalla vs Ismaily SC — League Cup 2021

Ghazl El Mehalla
Ghazl El Mehalla
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ismaily SC
Ismaily SCadvanced
A. Reda 120+6' (pen)
J. Mohammed 120+5' (pen)
K. Mostafa 120+4' (pen)
H. M. Mkami 120+3' (pen), 43'
Tarek Samy 120+2' (pen)
A. El Sheikh 120+1' (pen)
Y. Annor 120+7' (pen)
E. Hamdy 120+6' (pen)
A. Madbouli 120+5' (pen)
M. Desouki 120+4' (pen)
O. El Wahsh 120+3' (pen)
F. Chaouat 120+2' (pen), 3'
B. El Mohamady 120+1' (pen)
3/20/2023League CupLeague Cup · Round of 16El Mahalla Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ghazl El Mehalla43%
×Draw30%
Ismaily SC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ghazl El Mehalla
1.20
Ismaily SC
0.88

Ghazl El Mehalla creates 36% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Ghazl El Mehalla
1.50
Ismaily SC
0.50

allows per match

Ghazl El Mehalla
1.25
Ismaily SC
0.90

finishing

Ghazl El Mehalla+0.00on par
Ismaily SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 66Over: 3466%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 59Yes: 4159%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ghazl El Mehalla ↓

Ismaily SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ghazl El Mehalla or draw
73%
Ghazl El Mehalla or Ismaily SC
70%
Draw or Ismaily SC
57%

Winning margin

Ghazl El Mehalla wins by 2+
19%
Ismaily SC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ghazl El Mehalla 1+ goals
70%
Ghazl El Mehalla 2+ goals
34%
Ghazl El Mehalla 3+ goals
12%
Ismaily SC 1+ goals
59%
Ismaily SC 2+ goals
22%
Ismaily SC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ghazl El Mehalla (draw refunded)
62%
Ismaily SC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ghazl El Mehalla at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Ismaily SC away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ghazl El Mehalla attack 1.50 + Ismaily SC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.20

Ismaily SC attack 0.50 + Ghazl El Mehalla defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ghazl El Mehalla scores more
43%
level
30%
Ismaily SC scores more
27%

Ghazl El Mehalla at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ghazl El Mehalla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
F. Chaouat
32'
G. Orok
42'
B. El Mohamady
43'
H. M. Mkami
45+3'
M. Fawzi← M. Coco
46'
G. Orok← H. Morsi
59'
M. Desouki
64'
I. Ayesh← A. Nadery
68'
A. Madbouli← A. Madbouli
68'
S. Aka← E. Hamdy
74'
E. Samir← A. Reda
74'
C. Ekpenyong← K. Mostafa
78'
J. Mohammed
80'
M. Hassan← O. El Wahsh
80'
M. El Shami← Y. Annor
90+1'
M. El Henawy← M. Bazooka
120+1'
B. El MohamadyPenalty
120+1'
A. El SheikhPenalty
120+2'
F. ChaouatPenalty
120+2'
Tarek SamyPenalty
120+3'
O. El WahshPenalty
120+3'
H. M. MkamiPenalty
120+4'
M. DesoukiPenalty
120+4'
K. MostafaPenalty
120+5'
A. MadbouliPenalty
120+5'
J. MohammedPenalty
120+6'
E. HamdyPenalty
120+6'
A. RedaPenalty
120+7'
Y. AnnorPenalty
120+7'
A. NaderyMissed penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ghazl El Mehalla vs Ismaily SC

Ghazl El Mehalla and Ismaily SC drew 1-1 in League Cup on March 20, 2023.

Goals: F. Chaouat (3', 120+2' pen), H. M. Mkami (43', 120+3' pen), B. El Mohamady (120+1' pen), A. El Sheikh (120+1' pen), Tarek Samy (120+2' pen), O. El Wahsh (120+3' pen), M. Desouki (120+4' pen), K. Mostafa (120+4' pen), A. Madbouli (120+5' pen), J. Mohammed (120+5' pen), E. Hamdy (120+6' pen), A. Reda (120+6' pen), Y. Annor (120+7' pen).

The match was played at El Mahalla Stadium in El-Mahalla El-Kubra.