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Ghazl El Mehalla vs AL Masry — Premier League 2018

Ghazl El Mehalla
Ghazl El Mehalla
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
AL Masry
AL Masry
6/7/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 31Borg El Arab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Ghazl El Mehalla31%
×Draw30%
AL Masry39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ghazl El Mehalla
0.96
AL Masry
1.12

AL Masry creates 17% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 121 away

creates per match

Ghazl El Mehalla
0.86
AL Masry
1.18

allows per match

Ghazl El Mehalla
1.06
AL Masry
1.06

finishing

Ghazl El Mehalla+0.00on par
AL Masry+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ghazl El Mehalla ↓

AL Masry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ghazl El Mehalla or draw
61%
Ghazl El Mehalla or AL Masry
70%
Draw or AL Masry
69%

Winning margin

Ghazl El Mehalla wins by 2+
11%
AL Masry wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ghazl El Mehalla 1+ goals
62%
Ghazl El Mehalla 2+ goals
25%
Ghazl El Mehalla 3+ goals
7%
AL Masry 1+ goals
67%
AL Masry 2+ goals
31%
AL Masry 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ghazl El Mehalla (draw refunded)
44%
AL Masry (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ghazl El Mehalla at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.06 · 86 matches

AL Masry away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.06 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ghazl El Mehalla attack 0.86 + AL Masry defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

AL Masry attack 1.18 + Ghazl El Mehalla defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ghazl El Mehalla scores more
31%
level
30%
AL Masry scores more
39%

AL Masry at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AL Masry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ghazl El Mehalla vs AL Masry

Ghazl El Mehalla and AL Masry drew 1-1 in Premier League on June 7, 2023.

The match was played at Borg El Arab Stadium in Alexandria.