AL Masry 1–1 Ghazl El Mehalla: Result & Stats

AL Masry

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ghazl El Mehalla

1/20/2023

Premier League · Round 14Borg El Arab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

AL Masry45%

×Draw29%

Ghazl El Mehalla26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AL MasryExpected goals in this matchGhazl El Mehalla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.90

AL Masry

1.27

Ghazl El Mehalla

0.90

AL Masry creates 41% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 84 away

1.18

creates per match

0.71

1.08

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

AL Masry

1.18

Ghazl El Mehalla

0.71

allows per match

AL Masry

1.08

Ghazl El Mehalla

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AL Masry+0.00on par

Ghazl El Mehalla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AL Masry ↓

Ghazl El Mehalla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

AL Masry or draw

74%

AL Masry or Ghazl El Mehalla

71%

Draw or Ghazl El Mehalla

55%

Winning margin

AL Masry wins by 2+

20%

Ghazl El Mehalla wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

AL Masry 1+ goals

72%

AL Masry 2+ goals

36%

AL Masry 3+ goals

14%

Ghazl El Mehalla 1+ goals

59%

Ghazl El Mehalla 2+ goals

23%

Ghazl El Mehalla 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

AL Masry (draw refunded)

63%

Ghazl El Mehalla (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AL Masry at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.08 · 125 matches

Ghazl El Mehalla away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.37 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AL Masry attack 1.18 + Ghazl El Mehalla defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ghazl El Mehalla attack 0.71 + AL Masry defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AL Masry scores more

45%

level

29%

Ghazl El Mehalla scores more

26%

AL Masry at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AL Masry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff