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GFE 105 vs FC Talanta — Super League 2018

GFE 105
GFE 105
FT
2 – 2
FC Talanta
FC Talanta
4/27/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

GFE 10532%
×Draw29%
FC Talanta38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GFE 105
1.02
FC Talanta
1.14

FC Talanta creates 12% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

GFE 105
0.88
FC Talanta
1.22

allows per match

GFE 105
1.06
FC Talanta
1.17

finishing

GFE 105+0.00on par
FC Talanta+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GFE 105 ↓

FC Talanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

GFE 105 or draw
62%
GFE 105 or FC Talanta
71%
Draw or FC Talanta
68%

Winning margin

GFE 105 wins by 2+
12%
FC Talanta wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

GFE 105 1+ goals
64%
GFE 105 2+ goals
27%
GFE 105 3+ goals
8%
FC Talanta 1+ goals
68%
FC Talanta 2+ goals
32%
FC Talanta 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

GFE 105 (draw refunded)
46%
FC Talanta (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GFE 105 at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

FC Talanta away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GFE 105 attack 0.88 + FC Talanta defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

FC Talanta attack 1.22 + GFE 105 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

GFE 105 scores more
32%
level
29%
FC Talanta scores more
38%

FC Talanta at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Talanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: GFE 105 2–2 FC Talanta

GFE 105 and FC Talanta drew 2-2 in Super League on April 27, 2018.