FC Talanta 2–2 GFE 105: Result & Stats

FC Talanta

FT

2 – 2

GFE 105

9/16/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

FC Talanta51%

×Draw25%

GFE 10525%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC TalantaExpected goals in this matchGFE 105

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.06

FC Talanta

1.63

GFE 105

1.06

FC Talanta creates 54% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

1.25

creates per match

0.50

1.63

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

FC Talanta

1.25

GFE 105

0.50

allows per match

FC Talanta

1.63

GFE 105

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Talanta+0.00on par

GFE 105+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Talanta ↓

GFE 105 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

FC Talanta or draw

75%

FC Talanta or GFE 105

75%

Draw or GFE 105

49%

Winning margin

FC Talanta wins by 2+

27%

GFE 105 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FC Talanta 1+ goals

80%

FC Talanta 2+ goals

48%

FC Talanta 3+ goals

22%

GFE 105 1+ goals

65%

GFE 105 2+ goals

29%

GFE 105 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FC Talanta (draw refunded)

67%

GFE 105 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Talanta at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

GFE 105 away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Talanta attack 1.25 + GFE 105 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

GFE 105 attack 0.50 + FC Talanta defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Talanta scores more

51%

level

25%

GFE 105 scores more

25%

FC Talanta at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Talanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff