GFC Topoľčany W 1–3 Dukla Banská Bystrica W

GFC Topoľčany W

FT

1 – 3

Dukla Banská Bystrica W

3/11/2023

I Liga - Women · Round 17Futbalové ihrisko OFK Tesáre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

GFC Topoľčany W66%

×Draw17%

Dukla Banská Bystrica W17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GFC Topoľčany WExpected goals in this matchDukla Banská Bystrica W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

1.38

GFC Topoľčany W

2.75

Dukla Banská Bystrica W

1.38

GFC Topoľčany W creates 99% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 55 away

1.62

creates per match

1.22

1.54

allows per match

3.89

creates per match

GFC Topoľčany W

1.62

Dukla Banská Bystrica W

1.22

allows per match

GFC Topoľčany W

1.54

Dukla Banská Bystrica W

3.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GFC Topoľčany W+0.00on par

Dukla Banská Bystrica W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GFC Topoľčany W ↓

Dukla Banská Bystrica W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

GFC Topoľčany W or draw

83%

GFC Topoľčany W or Dukla Banská Bystrica W

83%

Draw or Dukla Banská Bystrica W

34%

Winning margin

GFC Topoľčany W wins by 2+

45%

Dukla Banská Bystrica W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

GFC Topoľčany W 1+ goals

93%

GFC Topoľčany W 2+ goals

75%

GFC Topoľčany W 3+ goals

51%

Dukla Banská Bystrica W 1+ goals

75%

Dukla Banská Bystrica W 2+ goals

40%

Dukla Banská Bystrica W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

GFC Topoľčany W (draw refunded)

79%

Dukla Banská Bystrica W (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GFC Topoľčany W at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica W away — creates 1.22, concedes 3.89 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GFC Topoľčany W attack 1.62 + Dukla Banská Bystrica W defence 3.89 → ÷2 → 2.75

Dukla Banská Bystrica W attack 1.22 + GFC Topoľčany W defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

GFC Topoľčany W scores more

66%

level

17%

Dukla Banská Bystrica W scores more

17%

GFC Topoľčany W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "GFC Topoľčany W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff