Dukla Banská Bystrica W 4–1 GFC Topoľčany W

Dukla Banská Bystrica W

FT

4 – 1

GFC Topoľčany W

9/28/2022

I Liga - Women · Round 8Štadión ŠKF Kremnička

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica W55%

×Draw18%

GFC Topoľčany W27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dukla Banská Bystrica WExpected goals in this matchGFC Topoľčany W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.79

1.95

Dukla Banská Bystrica W

2.79

GFC Topoľčany W

1.95

Dukla Banská Bystrica W creates 43% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 26 away

1.58

creates per match

1.19

2.71

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica W

1.58

GFC Topoľčany W

1.19

allows per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica W

2.71

GFC Topoľčany W

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dukla Banská Bystrica W+0.00on par

GFC Topoľčany W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Banská Bystrica W ↓

GFC Topoľčany W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Dukla Banská Bystrica W or draw

73%

Dukla Banská Bystrica W or GFC Topoľčany W

82%

Draw or GFC Topoľčany W

45%

Winning margin

Dukla Banská Bystrica W wins by 2+

36%

GFC Topoľčany W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dukla Banská Bystrica W 1+ goals

94%

Dukla Banská Bystrica W 2+ goals

76%

Dukla Banská Bystrica W 3+ goals

52%

GFC Topoľčany W 1+ goals

86%

GFC Topoľčany W 2+ goals

58%

GFC Topoľčany W 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Dukla Banská Bystrica W (draw refunded)

67%

GFC Topoľčany W (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Banská Bystrica W at home — creates 1.58, concedes 2.71 · 55 matches

GFC Topoľčany W away — creates 1.19, concedes 4.00 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Banská Bystrica W attack 1.58 + GFC Topoľčany W defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.79

GFC Topoľčany W attack 1.19 + Dukla Banská Bystrica W defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dukla Banská Bystrica W scores more

55%

level

18%

GFC Topoľčany W scores more

27%

Dukla Banská Bystrica W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Dukla Banská Bystrica W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff