Getafe 1–2 Real Sociedad: Result & Stats | La Liga

Getafe

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Real Sociedad

Juanmi 90'

J. Aramburu 90'

B. Mendez 36'

1/9/2026

La Liga · Round 19Coliseum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Getafe41%

×Draw28%

Real Sociedad31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GetafeExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.05

Getafe

1.27

Real Sociedad

1.05

Getafe creates 21% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 34 away

1.03

creates per match

1.05

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Getafe

1.03

Real Sociedad

1.05

allows per match

Getafe

1.05

Real Sociedad

1.50

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Getafe-0.14scores less

Real Sociedad-0.05on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe ↓

Real Sociedad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Getafe or draw

69%

Getafe or Real Sociedad

72%

Draw or Real Sociedad

59%

Winning margin

Getafe wins by 2+

19%

Real Sociedad wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Getafe 1+ goals

72%

Getafe 2+ goals

36%

Getafe 3+ goals

14%

Real Sociedad 1+ goals

65%

Real Sociedad 2+ goals

28%

Real Sociedad 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Getafe (draw refunded)

57%

Real Sociedad (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

Real Sociedad away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe attack 1.03 + Real Sociedad defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Real Sociedad attack 1.05 + Getafe defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Getafe scores more

41%

level

28%

Real Sociedad scores more

31%

Getafe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Getafe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

Allan Nyom

36'

B. Mendez

57'

Juanmi← A. Liso

57'

Alex Sancris← A. Mestanza

58'

A. Barrenetxea← G. Guedes

58'

L. Sucic← B. Mendez

63'

Jon Aramburu

64'

J. Montes← M. Martin

65'

J. Gorrotxategi← B. Turrientes

78'

I. Bekhoucha← J. Iglesias

78'

83'

83'

90+2'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GetafeReal

Overview

43%Possession57%

6Total Shots12

0.24Expected Goals (xG)1.11

2Corners4

17Fouls17

Shots

6Total Shots12

3On Target5

2Off Target5

1Blocked2

3Inside Box6

3Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

330Total Passes444

226Accurate Passes356

68%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-0.75Goals Prevented-0.75

Discipline

17Fouls17

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides2