Getafe II 3–0 Carabanchel: Result & Stats

Getafe II

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Carabanchel

4/14/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 39Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Getafe II52%

×Draw25%

Carabanchel23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Getafe IIExpected goals in this matchCarabanchel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.97

Getafe II

1.61

Carabanchel

0.97

Getafe II creates 66% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 82 away

1.71

creates per match

0.95

1.00

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Getafe II

1.71

Carabanchel

0.95

allows per match

Getafe II

1.00

Carabanchel

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Getafe II+0.00on par

Carabanchel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe II ↓

Carabanchel →

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Getafe II or draw

77%

Getafe II or Carabanchel

75%

Draw or Carabanchel

48%

Winning margin

Getafe II wins by 2+

28%

Carabanchel wins by 2+

Team goals

Getafe II 1+ goals

80%

Getafe II 2+ goals

48%

Getafe II 3+ goals

22%

Carabanchel 1+ goals

62%

Carabanchel 2+ goals

25%

Carabanchel 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Getafe II (draw refunded)

70%

Carabanchel (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Getafe II at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

Carabanchel away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.52 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Getafe II attack 1.71 + Carabanchel defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.61

Carabanchel attack 0.95 + Getafe II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Getafe II scores more

52%

level

25%

Carabanchel scores more

23%

Getafe II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Getafe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff