Carabanchel 1–2 Getafe II: Result & Stats

Carabanchel

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Getafe II

12/12/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 18Estadio La Mina de Carabanchel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Carabanchel33%

×Draw30%

Getafe II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarabanchelExpected goals in this matchGetafe II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.11

Carabanchel

1.04

Getafe II

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 35 away

1.07

creates per match

1.29

0.93

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Carabanchel

1.07

Getafe II

1.29

allows per match

Carabanchel

0.93

Getafe II

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carabanchel+0.00on par

Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carabanchel ↓

Getafe II →

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Carabanchel or draw

63%

Carabanchel or Getafe II

70%

Draw or Getafe II

67%

Winning margin

Carabanchel wins by 2+

13%

Getafe II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Carabanchel 1+ goals

65%

Carabanchel 2+ goals

28%

Carabanchel 3+ goals

Getafe II 1+ goals

67%

Getafe II 2+ goals

30%

Getafe II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Carabanchel (draw refunded)

47%

Getafe II (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Carabanchel at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.93 · 80 matches

Getafe II away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Carabanchel attack 1.07 + Getafe II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Getafe II attack 1.29 + Carabanchel defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Carabanchel scores more

33%

level

30%

Getafe II scores more

37%

Getafe II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Getafe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff