Getafe II 1–0 Atlético Baleares: Result & Stats

Getafe II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Baleares

Hugo Díaz 89'

11/24/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Getafe II33%

×Draw33%

Atlético Baleares34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Getafe IIExpected goals in this matchAtlético Baleares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

0.92

Getafe II

0.89

Atlético Baleares

0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

0.93

creates per match

0.77

1.07

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Getafe II

0.93

Atlético Baleares

0.77

allows per match

Getafe II

1.07

Atlético Baleares

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Getafe II+0.00on par

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe II ↓

Atlético Baleares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Getafe II or draw

66%

Getafe II or Atlético Baleares

67%

Draw or Atlético Baleares

67%

Winning margin

Getafe II wins by 2+

11%

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Getafe II 1+ goals

59%

Getafe II 2+ goals

22%

Getafe II 3+ goals

6%

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals

60%

Atlético Baleares 2+ goals

23%

Atlético Baleares 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Getafe II (draw refunded)

49%

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe II at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe II attack 0.93 + Atlético Baleares defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.89

Atlético Baleares attack 0.77 + Getafe II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Getafe II scores more

33%

level

33%

Atlético Baleares scores more

34%

Atlético Baleares at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

Arturo← Alberto Gil

67'

Borja San Emeterio← David Haro

73'

Antonio Vargas← José Márquez

74'

José García← José Peris

81'

Álvaro Rivero← Pesca

89'

Hugo Díaz

90+1'

K. Kotsopoulos← Hugo Duro

Getafe

Atlético

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Diego Montoya

73'▲Antonio Vargas←▼José Márquez

81'▲Álvaro Rivero←▼Pesca

90+1'▲K. Kotsopoulos←▼Hugo Duro

Getafe II substitutes

VargasRiveroKotsopoulosMasogoGonzálezDaríoMiranda

Manager: Manix Mandiola

59'▲Arturo←▼Alberto Gil

67'▲Borja San Emeterio←▼David Haro

74'▲José García←▼José Peris

Atlético Baleares substitutes

ArturoEmeterioGarcíaAurtenetxeChecaCerveroHerrera

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Getafe II 1–0 Atlético Baleares

Getafe II beat Atlético Baleares 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 24, 2019.

Goals: Hugo Díaz (89').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 2 in Getafe.

Getafe II vs Atlético Baleares — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Getafe II 1–0 Atlético Baleares