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Atlético Baleares vs Getafe II — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Getafe II
Getafe II
3/21/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 18Estadio Balear

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Atlético Baleares56%
×Draw27%
Getafe II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Baleares
1.42
Getafe II
0.65

Atlético Baleares creates 118% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Atlético Baleares
1.75
Getafe II
0.62

allows per match

Atlético Baleares
0.67
Getafe II
1.08

finishing

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par
Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Baleares ↓

Getafe II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atlético Baleares or draw
83%
Atlético Baleares or Getafe II
73%
Draw or Getafe II
44%

Winning margin

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
28%
Getafe II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
76%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
41%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
17%
Getafe II 1+ goals
48%
Getafe II 2+ goals
14%
Getafe II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
77%
Getafe II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Baleares at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Getafe II away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Baleares attack 1.75 + Getafe II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.42

Getafe II attack 0.62 + Atlético Baleares defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Atlético Baleares scores more
56%
level
27%
Getafe II scores more
17%

Atlético Baleares at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: Atlético Baleares 3–1 Getafe II

Atlético Baleares beat Getafe II 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Balear in Palma de Mallorca, Illes Balears.