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Germany vs France — UEFA Nations League 2018

Germany
Germany
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
France
France
9/6/2018UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League A - 1Allianz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Germany45%
×Draw23%
France32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germany
1.77
France
1.46

Germany creates 21% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

creates per match

Germany
2.29
France
1.63

allows per match

Germany
1.29
France
1.25

finishing

Germany+0.00on par
France+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany ↓

France →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Germany or draw
68%
Germany or France
77%
Draw or France
55%

Winning margin

Germany wins by 2+
24%
France wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Germany 1+ goals
83%
Germany 2+ goals
53%
Germany 3+ goals
26%
France 1+ goals
77%
France 2+ goals
43%
France 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Germany (draw refunded)
58%
France (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

France away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany attack 2.29 + France defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.77

France attack 1.63 + Germany defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Germany scores more
45%
level
23%
France scores more
32%

Germany at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Germany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Germany vs France

Germany and France drew 0-0 in UEFA Nations League on September 6, 2018.

The match was played at Allianz Arena in Munich.