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France vs Germany — Euro Championship 2020

France
France
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Germany
Germany
6/15/2021Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Group F - 1Allianz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

France46%
×Draw25%
Germany29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

France
1.56
Germany
1.19

France creates 31% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

France
2.13
Germany
1.88

allows per match

France
0.50
Germany
1.00

finishing

France+0.00on par
Germany+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

France ↓

Germany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

France or draw
71%
France or Germany
75%
Draw or Germany
54%

Winning margin

France wins by 2+
23%
Germany wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

France 1+ goals
79%
France 2+ goals
46%
France 3+ goals
21%
Germany 1+ goals
70%
Germany 2+ goals
33%
Germany 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

France (draw refunded)
61%
Germany (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

France at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Germany away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

France attack 2.13 + Germany defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Germany attack 1.88 + France defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

France scores more
46%
level
25%
Germany scores more
29%

France at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "France will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: France vs Germany

France beat Germany 1-0 in Euro Championship on June 15, 2021.

The match was played at Allianz Arena in München.