Germany U19 5–1 Belarus U19: Result & Stats

Germany U19

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Belarus U19

L. Ullrich 90+4'

K. Topp 86', 79'

M. Damar 74' (pen), 31'

A. Shumanskiy 62' (pen)

9/24/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Sportplatz Franzsches Feld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Germany U1966%

×Draw19%

Belarus U1915%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germany U19Expected goals in this matchBelarus U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

0.99

Germany U19

2.26

Belarus U19

0.99

Germany U19 creates 128% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 8 away

2.52

creates per match

0.88

1.10

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Germany U19

2.52

Belarus U19

0.88

allows per match

Germany U19

1.10

Belarus U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germany U19+0.00on par

Belarus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany U19 ↓

Belarus U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Germany U19 or draw

85%

Germany U19 or Belarus U19

81%

Draw or Belarus U19

34%

Winning margin

Germany U19 wins by 2+

43%

Belarus U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Germany U19 1+ goals

89%

Germany U19 2+ goals

66%

Germany U19 3+ goals

39%

Belarus U19 1+ goals

63%

Belarus U19 2+ goals

26%

Belarus U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Germany U19 (draw refunded)

81%

Belarus U19 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany U19 at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Belarus U19 away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany U19 attack 2.52 + Belarus U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.26

Belarus U19 attack 0.88 + Germany U19 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Germany U19 scores more

66%

level

19%

Belarus U19 scores more

15%

Germany U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Germany U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

M. Damar

31'

M. Damar

46'

P. Lehmann← S. Ba

58'

V. Varaksa← T. Sharkovskiy

62'

A. ShumanskiyPenalty

63'

M. Frauendorf← Y. Kabadayı

63'

T. Rothe← B. Gruda

66'

A. Guz

70'

K. Tsepenkov← M. Kireev

72'

M. Kouruk

74'

M. DamarPenalty

76'

J. Diehl← M. Frauendorf

79'

K. Topp

84'

A. Ageev← V. Martinkevich

84'

A. Frantsuzov← A. Shumanskiy

84'

D. Zhulpa← A. Guz

86'

M. Wenig← K. Topp

86'

K. Topp

90+4'

L. Ullrich

Germany

Belarus

1

2

3

4

5

11

▼

Guz

13

Dushevski

15

▼

Martinkev

18

▼

Kireev

19

▼

Sharkovsk

7

⚽

▼

Shumanski

1

Feller

5

Collins

19

▼

Ba

3

⚽

15

6

8

20

▼

Gruda

10

⚽2

Damar

11

▼

Kabadayı

13

⚽2

▼

Topp

Manager: G. Streichsbier

46'▲P. Lehmann←▼S. Ba

63'▲M. Frauendorf←▼Y. Kabadayı

63'▲T. Rothe←▼B. Gruda

76'▲J. Diehl←▼M. Frauendorf

86'▲M. Wenig←▼K. Topp

Germany U19 substitutes

2Lehmann7Frauendorf16Rothe18Diehl14Wenig17Zehnter12Backhaus9Marino

Manager: Y. Markhel

58'▲V. Varaksa←▼T. Sharkovskiy

70'▲K. Tsepenkov←▼M. Kireev

84'▲A. Ageev←▼V. Martinkevich

84'▲A. Frantsuzov←▼A. Shumanskiy

84'▲D. Zhulpa←▼A. Guz

Belarus U19 substitutes

17Varaksa10Tsepenkov21Ageev9Frantsuzov8Zhulpa6Blotskiy12Shimakovich20Gitselev