Germany U19 9–2 Belarus U19: Result & Stats

Germany U19

9 – 2

HT: 4 – 1

Belarus U19

O. Schönfelder 88'

N. Tauer 83'

K. Ehlers 71'

L. Dajaku 66', 39'

L. Samardžić 58'

K. Schade 32', 22', 6'

G. Gurban 75'

E. Kozel 41'

10/12/2019

UEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 2Cappielow Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Germany U1966%

×Draw15%

Belarus U1919%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germany U19Expected goals in this matchBelarus U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.56

1.92

Germany U19

3.56

Belarus U19

1.92

Germany U19 creates 85% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

3.13

creates per match

1.33

2.50

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Germany U19

3.13

Belarus U19

1.33

allows per match

Germany U19

2.50

Belarus U19

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germany U19+0.00on par

Belarus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany U19 ↓

Belarus U19 →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–02%

1–13%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–03%

4–16%

4–26%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

78%22%4.5

61%39%

Double chance

Germany U19 or draw

81%

Germany U19 or Belarus U19

85%

Draw or Belarus U19

34%

Winning margin

Germany U19 wins by 2+

48%

Belarus U19 wins by 2+

Team goals

Germany U19 1+ goals

97%

Germany U19 2+ goals

86%

Germany U19 3+ goals

67%

Belarus U19 1+ goals

85%

Belarus U19 2+ goals

57%

Belarus U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Germany U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Belarus U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

80%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Germany U19 at home — creates 3.13, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

Belarus U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Germany U19 attack 3.13 + Belarus U19 defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.56

Belarus U19 attack 1.33 + Germany U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Germany U19 scores more

66%

level

15%

Belarus U19 scores more

19%

Germany U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Germany U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

K. Schade

22'

K. Schade

32'

K. Schade

37'

P. Pashevich← O. Nikiforenko

39'

L. Dajaku

41'

E. Kozel

58'

L. Samardžić

59'

O. Schönfelder← O. Meier

59'

L. Jastremski← K. Schade

66'

L. Dajaku

70'

S. Messeguem← L. Samardžić

70'

M. Gudra← L. Dajaku

71'

K. Ehlers

72'

V. Lozhkin← E. Kozel

72'

S. Penchuk← R. Davyskiba

72'

N. Demchenko← G. Rovdo

75'

80'

83'

88'

Germany

Belarus

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Samardžić

⚽2

▼

Dajaku

⚽3

▼

Schade

Manager: G. Streichsbier

59'▲O. Schönfelder←▼O. Meier

59'▲L. Jastremski←▼K. Schade

70'▲S. Messeguem←▼L. Samardžić

70'▲M. Gudra←▼L. Dajaku

80'▲A. Aidonis←▼F. Jäkel

Germany U19 substitutes

11Schönfelder20Jastremski16Messeguem17Gudra15Aidonis2Asta7Müller12Klein19Kurt

Manager: V. Korytko

37'▲P. Pashevich←▼O. Nikiforenko

72'▲V. Lozhkin←▼E. Kozel

72'▲S. Penchuk←▼R. Davyskiba

72'▲N. Demchenko←▼G. Rovdo

Belarus U19 substitutes

21Pashevich11Lozhkin17Penchuk19Demchenko12Shpakovskiy14Supranovich15Luzan16Zgurskiy

Match Recap: Germany U19 vs Belarus U19

Germany U19 beat Belarus U19 9-2 in UEFA U19 Championship on October 12, 2019.

Goals: K. Schade (6', 22', 32'), L. Dajaku (39', 66'), E. Kozel (41'), L. Samardžić (58'), K. Ehlers (71'), G. Gurban (75'), N. Tauer (83'), O. Schönfelder (88').

The match was played at Cappielow Park in Greenock.

Germany U19 vs Belarus U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Germany U19 vs Belarus U19