Germania Teveren 0–4 Bergisch Gladbach

Germania Teveren

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Bergisch Gladbach

5/12/2024

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 29Heidestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Germania Teveren17%

×Draw20%

Bergisch Gladbach62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germania TeverenExpected goals in this matchBergisch Gladbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

2.13

Germania Teveren

1.03

Bergisch Gladbach

2.13

Bergisch Gladbach creates 107% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 76 away

0.93

creates per match

1.92

2.33

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Germania Teveren

0.93

Bergisch Gladbach

1.92

allows per match

Germania Teveren

2.33

Bergisch Gladbach

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germania Teveren+0.00on par

Bergisch Gladbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Teveren ↓

Bergisch Gladbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Germania Teveren or draw

38%

Germania Teveren or Bergisch Gladbach

80%

Draw or Bergisch Gladbach

83%

Winning margin

Germania Teveren wins by 2+

6%

Bergisch Gladbach wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Germania Teveren 1+ goals

64%

Germania Teveren 2+ goals

28%

Germania Teveren 3+ goals

9%

Bergisch Gladbach 1+ goals

88%

Bergisch Gladbach 2+ goals

63%

Bergisch Gladbach 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Germania Teveren (draw refunded)

22%

Bergisch Gladbach (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Teveren at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Bergisch Gladbach away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.14 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Teveren attack 0.93 + Bergisch Gladbach defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03

Bergisch Gladbach attack 1.92 + Germania Teveren defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Germania Teveren scores more

17%

level

20%

Bergisch Gladbach scores more

62%

Bergisch Gladbach at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bergisch Gladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff