Bergisch Gladbach 3–0 Germania Teveren

Bergisch Gladbach

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Germania Teveren

11/12/2023

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 14BELKAW-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bergisch Gladbach70%

×Draw15%

Germania Teveren15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bergisch GladbachExpected goals in this matchGermania Teveren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.09

1.42

Bergisch Gladbach

3.09

Germania Teveren

1.42

Bergisch Gladbach creates 118% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 15 away

2.52

creates per match

1.67

1.16

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Bergisch Gladbach

2.52

Germania Teveren

1.67

allows per match

Bergisch Gladbach

1.16

Germania Teveren

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bergisch Gladbach+0.00on par

Germania Teveren+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergisch Gladbach ↓

Germania Teveren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Bergisch Gladbach or draw

85%

Bergisch Gladbach or Germania Teveren

85%

Draw or Germania Teveren

30%

Winning margin

Bergisch Gladbach wins by 2+

50%

Germania Teveren wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bergisch Gladbach 1+ goals

95%

Bergisch Gladbach 2+ goals

81%

Bergisch Gladbach 3+ goals

58%

Germania Teveren 1+ goals

76%

Germania Teveren 2+ goals

41%

Germania Teveren 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Bergisch Gladbach (draw refunded)

82%

Germania Teveren (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergisch Gladbach at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

Germania Teveren away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergisch Gladbach attack 2.52 + Germania Teveren defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.09

Germania Teveren attack 1.67 + Bergisch Gladbach defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Bergisch Gladbach scores more

70%

level

15%

Germania Teveren scores more

15%

Bergisch Gladbach at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Bergisch Gladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff