Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Germania Ratingen vs 1.FC Monchengladbach — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Germania Ratingen
Germania Ratingen
CANC
13:00
1.FC Monchengladbach
1.FC Monchengladbach
3/28/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 32Stadion Ratingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Germania Ratingen73%
×Draw15%
1.FC Monchengladbach12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germania Ratingen
2.79
1.FC Monchengladbach
1.07

Germania Ratingen creates 161% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 22 away

creates per match

Germania Ratingen
2.22
1.FC Monchengladbach
0.91

allows per match

Germania Ratingen
1.23
1.FC Monchengladbach
3.36

finishing

Germania Ratingen+0.00on par
1.FC Monchengladbach+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Ratingen ↓

1.FC Monchengladbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Germania Ratingen or draw
88%
Germania Ratingen or 1.FC Monchengladbach
85%
Draw or 1.FC Monchengladbach
27%

Winning margin

Germania Ratingen wins by 2+
52%
1.FC Monchengladbach wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Germania Ratingen 1+ goals
94%
Germania Ratingen 2+ goals
76%
Germania Ratingen 3+ goals
52%
1.FC Monchengladbach 1+ goals
66%
1.FC Monchengladbach 2+ goals
29%
1.FC Monchengladbach 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)
86%
1.FC Monchengladbach (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Ratingen at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.23 · 91 matches

1.FC Monchengladbach away — creates 0.91, concedes 3.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Ratingen attack 2.22 + 1.FC Monchengladbach defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.79

1.FC Monchengladbach attack 0.91 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Germania Ratingen scores more
73%
level
15%
1.FC Monchengladbach scores more
12%

Germania Ratingen at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Germania Ratingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Germania Ratingen face 1.FC Monchengladbach (Oberliga - Niederrhein)

Oberliga - Niederrhein returns with Germania Ratingen hosting 1.FC Monchengladbach. Match starts March 28, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Germania Ratingen host 1.FC Monchengladbach at Stadion Ratingen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.